Independent voters have grown increasingly dissatisfied with President Donald Trump during his second term, according to a new analysis of AP-NORC polling data. The analysis shows Trump's approval among independents without a college degree fell from approximately 48% around the 2024 election to about 25% by spring 2026.

The decline has been particularly pronounced among groups that helped propel Trump to victory in 2024. Hispanic independents, who viewed Trump favorably at a rate of 46% during the presidential election period, saw their approval drop to around 25% by spring, with approval falling as low as 15% during last fall's government shutdown. Younger independents also became less supportive, while those aged 60 and older remained relatively stable.

The analysis, conducted by researchers at The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, examined nearly two dozen polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026. It tracked opinion changes through several distinct periods, including Trump's first 100 days in office, the passage of legislation referred to as the "Big Beautiful Bill" in summer 2025, a government shutdown last fall, and the early stages of conflict with Iran.

Economic concerns appear central to the declining support. About half of independents who supported Trump in 2024 cited inflation as their primary voting factor, and current polling shows about 80% of independents describe the U.S. economy as poor. An April 2026 poll found only 30% of independents approve of Trump's economic handling, with just 12% approving of his management of cost-of-living issues.

The shift has effectively eliminated the education gap that previously existed among independent voters regarding Trump. College-educated independents, who held Trump approval ratings around 30% before he took office, have seen a smaller decline to approximately 25%, bringing them in line with their non-college counterparts.

The data suggests Trump's 2024 electoral gains among key demographic groups may not be permanent. Independent voters, who increasingly represent a larger share of the American electorate, supported Trump at a rate of 42% in 2024, up from 37% in 2020. Any continued erosion of this support could have implications for Republicans heading into midterm elections.