Tomato prices have increased approximately 40% over the past year, making them one of the fastest-rising food costs and a prominent symbol of ongoing affordability challenges facing American consumers.

The price surge exceeds increases for other grocery items that have seen significant inflation, including coffee (up 18.5%), beef roasts (up 17.8%), and frozen fish and seafood (up 12%). Overall prices increased 3.8% in April from a year earlier, according to inflation data released Thursday.

Experts attribute the tomato price increases to multiple factors, including the U.S. withdrawal last July from a trade agreement that allowed duty-free imports of tomatoes from Mexico, which supplies most of America's tomato needs. When Mexican tomatoes now enter the U.S. market, they face a 17% tariff. Federal data shows U.S. tariffs collected on tomatoes jumped from $16,424 in 2024 to nearly $4.6 million, representing a 27,879% increase.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has also contributed to rising costs by increasing fuel prices and shipping expenses. Usha Haley, an economist at Wichita State University, described the situation as "a perfect storm of trade policy, extreme weather and Mideast policy."

The impact has been particularly severe for restaurants and food service businesses that rely heavily on tomatoes. Restaurant price tracking firm MarginEdge reports that grape tomato prices have increased 65% in just one month. Snarf's Sandwiches, which operates stores in Colorado, Missouri and Texas, saw their tomato costs rise from $27 to $93 per case over the past year, adding $1.7 million in annual expenses.

Supply chain experts predict prices may decline later in the year when domestic tomato harvests begin, though the higher prices are expected to incentivize increased domestic planting, which takes time to impact supply due to growing cycles.