U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in February after declining 0.1% in January, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, as American consumers increased spending following earlier pullbacks due to severe winter storms.

The February increase exceeded expectations, with particularly strong gains in clothing and accessories stores, which saw sales rise 2%. Electronics and appliance stores recorded a 0.5% increase, while online retailers posted 0.7% growth. Restaurant sales, the lone services category tracked in the report, increased 0.4%.

However, economists expressed concern about future consumer spending as gasoline prices have surged due to the Iran war that began February 28. The conflict has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Gas prices surpassed $4 per gallon nationally on Tuesday for the first time since 2022, reaching $4.06 per gallon on Wednesday—a dollar more than before the war began.

Brent crude oil prices have risen more than 45% since the start of the conflict, with diesel fuel costs increasing even faster than gasoline. This has driven up transportation costs for companies and is expected to contribute to inflation increases potentially as soon as this month.

Economists warn that higher gas prices disproportionately affect lower-income households and could offset benefits from tax refunds that were expected to boost consumer spending. Samuel Tombs, chief economist at Pantheon Economics, estimates that higher gas prices could reduce real household incomes by roughly $15 billion per month.

Some retailers are already warning about potential impacts on consumer behavior. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy noted that gas expenditures are approaching 3% of median household income, and significant spending pullbacks typically occur when that figure reaches 4-5%. Several retail executives have indicated they expect energy price increases to significantly affect consumer behavior if gas prices continue rising.