Asian nations are increasingly seeking Russian crude oil as an energy crisis deepens following a month-old conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran, which has disrupted approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies. The crisis has particularly affected Asia, as much of the oil from the largely closed Strait of Hormuz was destined for the region.

To address global supply shortages, the United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil shipments already at sea, first for India and then for other countries. This move has prompted several Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, to signal new interest in Russian oil purchases. The Philippines imported Russian crude for the first time in five years after declaring an energy emergency.

However, experts warn that Russia's ability to significantly increase oil exports is limited. Russian oil flows averaged about 3.8 million barrels per day in March, up from February's 3.2 million but still below the mid-2023 peak of 3.9 million barrels daily. Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine and recent drone attacks on its energy infrastructure have constrained its export capabilities.

The Philippines has been among the hardest hit, with airlines considering fuel rationing and long lines forming at gas stations. Before the conflict, the country relied on the Middle East for nearly 97 percent of its seaborne oil imports. Other affected nations are exploring similar emergency measures, with Vietnam's prime minister visiting Russia in March to discuss oil and gas cooperation agreements.

China and India maintain advantages in accessing Russian oil, having been major customers before the current crisis. India's crude oil imports from Russia jumped to roughly 1.9 million barrels per day in March, up from about 1 million barrels before the Iran conflict. However, this increase may not fully offset the loss of Middle Eastern supplies, as India previously imported around 2.6 million barrels per day from that region.

Analysts estimate that approximately 126 million barrels of Russian oil remain available at sea for purchase, but competition is intensifying among energy-hungry nations. Countries are prioritizing supply security over other considerations as they face limited alternatives, with oil shipments from other regions requiring months to reach Asian markets.