Inflation Gauge Rose in January Before Iran War Drove Oil Prices Higher
A key inflation measure increased to 2.8% in January, with core prices reaching highest level in nearly two years before Iran conflict pushed energy costs up.

A closely watched inflation measure rose in January, marking persistent price pressures even before the ongoing Iran war caused oil and gas prices to surge, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Prices increased 2.8% in January compared with the same month a year earlier, slightly below December's reading. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy categories that Federal Reserve officials monitor closely, rose 3.1% annually, up from 3% in the previous month and reaching the highest level in nearly two years.
On a monthly basis, overall prices jumped 0.3% in January, while core prices increased 0.4% for the second consecutive month. If sustained, this pace would push inflation well above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target.
The January data release was delayed due to a six-week government shutdown last fall that created a backlog of economic reports. Officials said the data backlog is nearly cleared.
Since the January reporting period, the conflict with Iran that began February 28 has significantly altered the economic landscape. The war has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Oil prices have surged more than 40% since the conflict began, while gas prices have jumped to $3.60 per gallon from just under $3 a month earlier, according to AAA.
Economists forecast these energy price increases will likely cause inflation to spike in March and potentially April. Federal Reserve policymakers, who meet next week, are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged given that the Middle East conflict will raise inflation pressures in the near term.